Brisbane Bullets vs New Zealand Breakers NBL Game Preview

Oct 16, 2024

3 min read

Brisbane Bullets vs New Zealand Breakers Analysis

The Brisbane Bullets will host a New Zealand Breakers side fresh off an NBA preseason tour in the U.S., and they’ll be looking to capitalise on the visitors’ potential fatigue. The Bullets, coming off their first win of the season, will aim to build some momentum, while the Breakers are keen to avoid a sluggish post-trip start that hurt them last year. Both teams are chasing a win to build some early-season form, which should make for an intriguing contest.

Key Matchups

Tyrell Harrison (Brisbane) vs. New Zealand Frontcourt: Harrison had a standout performance in Brisbane’s win over South East Melbourne, racking up 21 points and an NBL-record 17 rebounds, including 12 offensive boards. His dominance in the paint will be crucial against New Zealand’s frontcourt and his battle with Freddie Gillespie will be worth keeping an eye on. The Breakers will need to contain Harrison and limit Brisbane's second-chance points if they want to stifle the Bullets’ offensive flow.

Parker Jackson-Cartwright (New Zealand) vs. Brisbane Guards: Jackson-Cartwright has been in superb form, averaging 19.5 points and 9 assists per game in the NBL, and continued that form during the Breakers’ U.S. tour. He’ll be up against James Batemon and Keandre Cook in the backcourt, and the key for Brisbane will be limiting his playmaking and penetration. If they can keep Jackson-Cartwright under control, they’ll have a good chance of disrupting the Breakers’ offence.

Casey Prather (Brisbane) vs. Mojave King (New Zealand): Prather has been a consistent performer for Brisbane, and his matchup against Mojave King will be pivotal. King impressed during the Breakers’ NBA trip, averaging 15.6 points per game. Both players can turn a game with their scoring ability, and whichever of the two gets going early could give their team a major advantage.

Key Stats

Brisbane Bullets

Averaging 89.3 points per game, ranked 5th in the league.
Pulling down 42.5 rebounds per game, placing them 5th overall.
Harrison’s rebounding dominance, particularly on the offensive glass, could be crucial against a New Zealand side that may struggle to keep up on the boards.

New Zealand Breakers

A strong defensive unit, allowing just 83 points per game (2nd-best in the NBL).
Despite their solid defence, the Breakers have allowed opponents to shoot 46% from the field, a weakness they’ll need to address against Brisbane’s bigs.
They rank 1st in rebounds allowed (just 34 per game), which means they’ll need to keep that up to prevent Brisbane from getting too many second-chance opportunities.

Historical Trends

The Breakers lost 8 of their first 11 games after returning from the U.S. last season and conceded an average of 99 points in their first three games post-trip.

Why Brisbane Wins

Brisbane has the fresher legs, home-court advantage, and are coming off a confidence-boosting win against the Phoenix. Tyrell Harrison’s dominance on the boards, coupled with improved performances from imports Casey Prather, Keandre Cook, and James Batemon, gives them the momentum they need. If they can exploit New Zealand’s travel fatigue and keep up their rebounding dominance, they’ll be in a strong position to get the win.

Why New Zealand Wins

The Breakers boast one of the best defences in the league and have the playmaking of Parker Jackson-Cartwright, who’s been in top form both in the NBL and on the NBA tour. If Jackson-Cartwright can control the tempo and get his teammates, particularly Mojave King, into scoring positions, they’ll be able to challenge Brisbane’s defence. They’ll need to push the pace and rely on their defensive strength to disrupt Brisbane’s attack, especially in transition.

While Brisbane’s fresh legs and home-court advantage give them an edge, the Breakers’ strong defence and playmaking ability make this a tough game to call. If New Zealand can shake off any jet lag and maintain their defensive intensity, they’ll be in the contest. However, the Bullets’ momentum and advantage in the paint give them the upper hand heading into this match.