Perth Wildcats vs Melbourne United NBL Game Preview

Oct 3, 2024

2 min read

Perth Wildcats vs Melbourne United Analysis

NBL24’s top two teams, the Perth Wildcats and Melbourne United, will go head-to-head for the first time in NBL25, with Melbourne tipped to get the win in Western Australia, just as they did last season. This matchup will be defined by contrasting styles: Perth’s fast-paced, high-scoring game led by MVP Bryce Cotton, versus Melbourne United’s controlled tempo and strong defensive play.

Key Matchups

Bryce Cotton vs. Melbourne’s Defence: Cotton, the reigning NBL MVP, drives Perth’s offence, but Melbourne’s backcourt duo of Shai Illi and Jack White will work hard to slow him down and disrupt his rhythm.
Tempo Control: Perth thrives on fast-break points, but Melbourne is ranked first in the NBL for limiting opponents' fast-break opportunities, allowing just 3.3 points per game. Whoever controls the tempo will have a decisive advantage.
Supporting Cast: If Cotton is contained, Perth will need players like Keanu Pinder, Dylan Windler, and rookie Elijah Pepper to step up and carry some of the offensive load. Meanwhile, Melbourne will rely on Illi and Chris Goulding to direct the play and make crucial defensive stops.

Why Melbourne United Will Win

Melbourne’s defence has been outstanding so far this season, ranking first in opposition three-point percentage (29.2%) and second in overall field goal percentage (42.1%). Their ability to stifle Perth’s offence, particularly if they manage to limit Cotton’s impact, gives them the upper hand. Melbourne’s controlled tempo and preference for low-scoring games suit their style, making them well-positioned to secure the win.

Why Perth Wildcats Could Win

Perth is one of the best offensive teams in the NBL, and if Cotton can find his groove, especially in transition, they could outscore United. The Wildcats also have quality shooters like Pepper, who made a significant impact off the bench, and Pinder, who will be keen to bounce back after a quiet performance. If they can push the pace and hit their shots, Perth has the potential to turn the game in their favour.

Key Stats

Melbourne United: Ranked first in limiting opposition three-point shooting (29.2%) and fast-break points (just 3.3 allowed per game).
Perth Wildcats: Ranked fourth in three-point shooting (39.0%), but seventh in overall field goal percentage (44.8%).
4 of the last 6 games between these teams have gone under the total score of 180.5 points, reflecting Melbourne’s ability to control the tempo and keep the game low-scoring.

Melbourne’s exceptional defence and ability to control the pace of the game make them the favourites heading into this clash. For Perth to stand a chance, they’ll need a standout performance from Bryce Cotton and strong contributions from their supporting cast. However, United’s defensive prowess should prove too much, allowing them to secure their third win of the season in what will likely be a closely contested, low-scoring battle.